TL;DR. The Preferred ($95) is the "right answer" for almost everyone entering the points game. The Reserve ($795) only makes sense if you take three or more paid trips a year, live near a Sapphire Lounge, and will actively use the Edit hotel credit and the dining, Lyft, Apple, and DoorDash stipends. The Reserve earns more on travel booked through Chase Travel (8x) and pure transferable points are the same currency on both cards, so the differentiator is credits and lounge access, not earn rate.
The three dimensions that actually decide it. First, annual fee gap of $700. The Reserve has to claw back $700 of marginal value before it ties the Preferred. Second, lounge access. Reserve gets Priority Pass plus the new Sapphire Lounge network; Preferred gets neither. Third, the Reserve's stacked credits (Edit hotel, dining, Apple, DashPass, Lyft, Peloton, StubHub) add up only if you already spend in those buckets. If you do not, they are theoretical.
Real customer scenario for each. If you spend $4k a month with $800 on dining and one or two paid trips a year, the Preferred wins. You get 3x dining, 5x on Chase Travel, full Ultimate Rewards transfer access (Hyatt, United, Air Canada, etc.) and a $50 Chase Travel hotel credit that wipes out half the fee. If instead you fly four or more times a year, already use the Edit, and would otherwise pay for Apple TV+, Apple Music, and DashPass, the Reserve's roughly $3,000 in stated credits is real and the lounge access changes how you travel.
The trap to avoid. People upgrade to Reserve "for the lounges" and then never claim the dining, Lyft, Apple, Peloton, or StubHub credits because they require active enrollment and behavioral changes. Be honest about which credits you will actually use before the math works. The Preferred is not a downgrade, it is the right card for most travelers.